Election Year Stock Market Performance

Studies on election years and market returns according to the 2019 dimensional funds report the market has been positive overall in 19 of the last 23 election years from 1928 2016 only showing negative returns four times.

Election year stock market performance. S p 500 stock market performance during general election years. But external events may sometimes be correlated to stock returns for instance the 4 year election cycle in the us. I have studied the election cycle and its potential impact on the stock market for many years looking back to the 1850s.

As of the writing of this blog the stock market is up a couple percentage points so far this year. S p 500 annual stock market returns during election years. The average stock market performance in election years turns out to be positive 82 of the time.

Year of presidential election data. Next i then took a look at what happens on the following year after the election for comparison and the results i came up with is on the year following the election there is a 54 chance the stock market will close higher. Since 1952 the dow jones industrial average has climbed 10 1 on average during election years when a sitting president has run for reelection according to the stock trader s almanac which is.

The rule of thumb. 1 djia finished year higher 0 djia finished year lower. According to dan clifton of strategas research partners in the year after the election historically the market s p 500 responds better to a republican victory initially november through february of the following year but a democratic victory ends up outperforming a republican victory by about 7.

No matter which party wins the white house. When the s p.