Election Forecast Electoral Votes

States that are forecasted to vote for one candidate by a big margin are at the ends of the path while tighter races are in the middle.

Election forecast electoral votes. The economist estimates biden to win 350 electoral college votes and trump to win 188 electoral college votes. To win the presidency candidates have to hit the magic number of 270 electoral votes. It takes 270 to win.

Long election nights are what make junkies go wild and partisans go crazy. The new electoral vote map will be first used in the 2024 presidential election. Bigger segments mean more electoral college votes.

As a rule when our estimated margin is steady in the presence of new data our forecast is more trustworthy. Congressional district are worth one electoral vote each. It s been 144 years since the electoral college how we decide our presidents was last decided by a mere 1 electoral vote.

If you prefer you can also use the 2016 electoral map or the 2018 midterm election vote as the starting point for your own electoral forecast. Winners and losers of the 2020 census while the census isn t complete and this is just a projection it s already pretty clear which states will gain more clout and which will lose it. The electoral college comprises a total of 538 members with each state getting a total number of electoral votes equal to its congressional delegation and three additional electoral votes for district of columbia.

Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day. The winner of the presidential election must win the majority of the electoral votes that is at least 270 out of the 538 available. Chance of winning the electoral college chance of winning the most votes predicted range of electoral college votes 270 to win.

Comparing our model results with two of the most popular forecasts this election the economist and fivethirtyeight our forecasts are not significantly different from theirs. The toss up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 65 or higher chance of winning. The economist s us presidential election forecast.