2016 Election Forecast Economist

Final 2016 projection from louis jacobson who has handicapped the electoral college in 2008 2012 and 2016 most recently for.

2016 election forecast economist. Election forecasting prediction 2016. Louis jacobson governing 2016 electoral map. See the current state of the race.

Prediction markets in which punters wager on the outcomes of elections had always considered the incumbent a heavy favourite. An irish bookmaker paddy power was so confident of his chances that it paid out 400 000 640 000 two days before the election to people who had bet on mr obama. Nate silver s predictions and polling data for the 2016 presidential election between hillary clinton and donald trump.

Few americans will recall a more distinct pair of candidates for the presidency. John antonakis a. The new york times s upshot forecast.

First although it is surely generally true that greater numbers of undecided voters tend to yield more volatile. The colored gradients are used to show higher. Clinton is expected to get 332 electoral votes while trump is predicted to get just 206 according to the moody s analytics model which is based on three economic and three political factors.

Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day. Updated twice daily this is an electoral map projection based on the economist s us presidential election forecast. And according to the economist it is an article of faith among economists that betting markets on politics provide by far the most reliable forecast of future events easily outclassing both.

Relevance to the 2016 general election. Follow thefix on twitter for their latest commentary and analysis of the 2016 elections. Will this trick be repeated in 2016.